Sports betting is not simple. If that were the case, Vegas would go bankrupt, and regular Joe bettors would quit their day jobs and live lavishly as millionaires.
Seasoned gamblers understand that there will always be ups and downs. And the goal is to stay the course, to be disciplined, and to gradually increase your bankroll over time.
You should be ultra-cautious and make the right decisions to have an edge. To help you out, here are some of the things you should do:
Never increase your risk.
Money management is possibly the most critical skill for a successful sports bettor. One of the common mistakes bettors make is to adjust their unit size according to how well or poorly they are performing.
When you’re on a roll, never double down and take extra risks because you’re overconfident. At the same time, never chase and try to reclaim everything in one fell swoop when you’re losing.
Instead, you should adopt a flat-betting strategy (unless you have a legitimate, quantifiable edge on particular bets).
Flat betting is where you bet the same amount on each game and risk no more than 1% to 5% of your account. If you are wondering what is a good flat bet to go with, go with 3% per play.
For example, if you start with $100, each bet has a $3 risk. If you start with $1,000, each bet is worth $30.
A flat-betting strategy will keep you from going bankrupt when you face the unavoidable rough patch. It will also give you a positive Return on Investment (ROI) when things go well.
Don’t buy into touts.
Because there is no monitoring or regulation in the sports betting sector, anyone may launch a company or website and start selling picks.
Due to the lack of oversight, handicappers can promote phony records and offer inconceivable wealth to gain business.
While many reputable and transparent handicappers are in the market, many people use phony identities, expensive automobiles, bikini-clad ladies, and unreachable records to entice new or ignorant bettors to buy their picks.
These promoters will bombard you with “Five Star Locks” and “Guaranteed Winners” to entice you to sign up. If something appears too good to be true, it most likely is, and you should stay away from it.
To stay safe, avoid handicappers that promise low-hanging fruit, if possible, avoid them entirely.
Always shop for the best line.
Having the ability to wager at various sportsbooks increases your chances of long-term success. Why? Well, every point and dime counts.
Assume you want to wager on the Miami Heat plus the points. Your book has a Heat +5 rating, another reader has a Heat +5.5 rating, and a third book has a Heat +6 rating.
You got that extra point, and betting on the book posting +6 benefits you. You just got a whole issue for free with numerous accounts for various books.
It may not appear to be a big deal at first, but in the long run, it can make all the difference and turn prospective losses into wins.
Think about it this way. If you bet 400 money lines over a year, you’ll about break even with a 210-190 record if every line is -110.
But if you can acquire them at -105, which is only five cents more each wager, you’ll make $1,000. Not a bad amount, right?
To have access to multiple lines and get the best deals, choose a reputable platform such as .
Don’t overreact to recent trends.
If a team has played well in the previous game or is on a winning streak, new bettors will most likely bet on it just because it is performing well.
At the same time, amateur bettors will ignore a team that is coming off a 20-point loss and a five-game losing run.
You shouldn’t do this. This is because clubs coming off a win tend to be overvalued.
For example, if a team is coming off a steady victory, the will overvalue it in the next game because they know the bettors will bet on it, no matter what.
As a result, you need to pay more for a terrible deal.
On the other hand, teams coming off a loss tend to be undervalued. The oddsmakers know that if the team is coming off a losing streak, the public will bet against them.
So, rather than opening the game at a genuine point, they open at a lower point, which you can take advantage of.
Place only a few bets.
Bettors enjoy betting. However, betting solely to have activity in your account is not a good idea. Betting on ten or more games per night is risky. This is because one poor night might wipe out your entire fortune.
Instead, you should exercise self-control and limit your wagers to only your most confident games of the day. Remember, you can never lose a bet that you do not place.
Have realistic expectations
When new bettors first begin betting, they have high expectations. Everyone wants to get wealthy overnight by winning 70% of their bets or hitting a 1,000-1 parlay, but that is impossible.
You should note that you should win 52.38% of the time to break even when betting on spread sports (assuming typical -110 juice).
Anything greater than 55% is highly profitable, so control your expectations.
Don’t fall for the gambler’s fallacy.
The Gambler’s Fallacy is the notion that if something has occurred several times, it’s less likely to happen in the future.
Assume you are in a roulette table and roll a black number ten spins, your first instinct may be to bet on red because it hasn’t happened in a while and is “due.”
Unfortunately, this logic doesn’t hold water because each roulette wheel spin is independent of previous spins.
In some ways, if a team has lost the first two games, it does not guarantee that they will win the third game.